The Graduation Rate vs. the Adjusted Graduation Rate

In the State of the Schools Address published on the Lynn Public Schools website, graduation rates are listed in terms of the four year adjusted rate; Lynn's four year adjusted graduation rate in 2011 was 71.9%. However, here we see the 'graduation rate' for Lynn listed as 68.6%. So which statistic is correct and what is the difference?

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) states that the 4 year graduation rate is the number of students who graduate in four years or less divided by the number of students beginning 9th grade together minus transfers out/deaths, plus transfers in (# of students graduating in 4 years or less/[# of first time entering 9th graders]- transfers out/death + transfers in). The adjusted 4 year graduation rate is the number of students graduating in 4 years or less divided by the number of students starting 9th grade together minus transfers out (# of students graduating in 4 years or less/[# of first time entering 9th grader] - transfers out/death). Thus the difference is that the 4 year graduation rate includes students who may not have started in a particular school or district but transferred into that school or district at some point during high school. On the other hand, the adjusted rate takes into account students who left a school or district but not those who may have entered after the 9th grade. In the case of Lynn, if one were to include students who transferred into the district and subtract those who either left or passed away, the graduation rate is 68.6%; the graduation rate  for students entering 9th grade at the same time and remaining within the Lynn public school district during the entire high school period is 71.9%.

Below is the graduation and adjusted graduation rates for the urban districts in Massachusetts. The cohort (or number of students included in the calculation) is also indicated.

	4 Yr Grad Rate	Cohort	4 Yr. Adjusted Grad Rate	Adjusted Cohort
Boston	64.4%	4632	69.4%	3543
Brockton	69.4%	1205	74.8%	907
Fall River	71.0%	624	76.6%	495
Holyoke	49.5%	491	51.7%	418
Lawrence	52.3%	905	54.2%	670
Lowell	69.6%	833	74.5%	646
Lynn	68.6%	1097	71.9%	923
New Bedford	56.4%	730	59.7%	566
Springfield	52.1%	1817	54.4%	1510
Worcester	72.0%	1853	75.1%	1541

*All Data Taken from: www.doe.mass.edu

Graduation Rates in Lynn Vary by Subgroup

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education recently reported both the graduation and dropout rates for the 2010-11 school year. As previously noted, Lynn's dropout rate decreased from 5.4% in 2009-10 to 4.6% in 2010-11 while the graduation rate increased from 68.5% to 68.6% during the same time period. This data indicates educational outcomes for the district as a whole, but what about individual subgroups? The most salient subgroups for our purposes are male, female, English language learner, special education, low income, African American/black, Asian, Hispanic and White.

[Note:] The graduation rate in Massachusetts is calculated by dividing the number of students who start 9th grade for the first time in the same year minus those who transfer out plus those who transfer in by the number of students in the cohort who graduate in four years or less. Thus the 2011 graduation rate statistic is related to students who started high school in the fall of 2007. 

In Lynn, the 2011 cohort group consisted of 1097 students. Females in this group were more likely to graduate in four years or less than males (74.8% graduation rate versus 63.5%). Similar gender disparities were seen in Danvers (92% vs. 84.3%), Revere (77.5% vs. 64%) and Salem (86.1% vs. 74.8%). The graduation rate for low income students was not substantially lower than the average for the city (65.8%) while English language learners and special education students did graduate at lower rates (59% and 48.1% respectively). 

At Lynn English, 80.2% of students starting 9th grade in 2007 graduated in four years or less. English language learners and special education students did graduate at a lower rate than the school average but at a higher rate than the district statistics (73.1%, 56.6%). Special education students did post the highest dropout and non-grad completer rates for all of the listed subgroups. Interestingly, of the racial/ethnic groups, Asian and African American/black students posted the highest graduation rates.

At Lynn Classical, 75.3% of students graduated in four years or less. There was an exactly 10 percentage points difference in grad rates between males and females while there was a 13 percentage point difference between white and Hispanic students. English language learners graduated from Classical at a slightly lower rate the Lynn English and the district average (55.1%); this group also had the highest rate of non-grad completers.

At Lynn Tech, 55.2% of students graduated in four years or less. Less than half of English language learners , special education and Asian students graduated in four years while white students had a 66.7% graduation rate. In this cohort group, nearly 12% were still in school (likely to complete a fifth year) while almost a quarter had dropped out. Four year dropout rates for all subgroups ranged between 20 - 33.3%.

Fecteau-Leary had a small cohort (56) of which 19.6% graduated within four years. Nearly 30% of these students dropped out while 30.4% of the students were still in school and 12.5% received a GED. This was the one school in Lynn where males were more likely to graduate than females (20% vs. 18.8%). The graduation rate for special education students did not differ greatly from the average for the school though this group did have the highest dropout rate.

*All Data Taken From: www.doe.mass.edu

Urban District Dropout Rates 2010-11

On February 10, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education reported the annual dropout rates for the Massachusetts as well as the individual districts and schools for the 2010-11 school year. Below are the dropout and graduation rates for the urban districts in the state.

	Dropout Rate	Graduation Rate
Massachusetts	2.7%	83.4%
Boston	6.4%	64.4%
Brockton	6.0%	69.4%
Fall River	4.7%	71.0%
Holyoke	9.8%	49.5%
Lawrence	8.6%	52.3%
Lowell	8.1%	69.6%
Lynn	4.6%	68.6%
New Bedford	7.1%	56.4%
Springfield	11.7%	52.1%
Worcester	3.7%	72.0%

Statewide the dropout rate decreased from 2.9 to 2.7% while the graduation rate increased from 82.1% to 83.4%. Lynn's dropout rate in 2010-11 was 4.6% which is a decrease of 0.8% from 2009-10; the graduation rate increased by 0.1% from the previous year. Lynn's total high school enrollment in 2010-11 was 4,003 so a 4.6% dropout rate means that 184 students dropped out. In terms of the individual high schools, both Lynn English and Lynn Classical had a 3.9% dropout rate while Lynn Tech had a 4.6% dropout rate (down from 7.1%). Among the urban districts, Lynn ranked second in the dropout category behind Worcester and fifth in the graduation rate category.

*For last year's figures, see here.

*All Data Taken From: www.doe.mass.edu

Comparing Massachusetts's Urban Districts

In a previous post about school choice in Lynn, I pointed out that a number of school committee members keep reiterating that among similar districts Lynn is ranked first. So what are those other districts and how does Lynn compare in terms of demographics and (multiple) educational outcomes? Per the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), ten districts combine to form a cohort known as the Commissioner's Districts. These districts are: Boston, Brockton, Fall River, Holyoke, Lawrence, Lowell, Lynn, New Bedford, Springfield and Worcester. The urban districts are linked based on the following criteria:

• 10,000 or more students (Holyoke is an exception)
• Highest poverty and subgroup enrollment in the state
• Three or more schools in Corrective Action or Restructuring in the aggregate for ELA, math or both
• In Corrective Action either in the aggregate or for subgroups as a district

In terms of the populations of some key subgroups, here is how the cities compare (**ELL = English Language Learner; LEP = Limited English Proficiency; SPED = Special Education). This data was taken from the 2010-11 school year.

	Low Income	ELL	LEP	SPED
Massachusetts	34.20%	16.30%	7.10%	17.00%
Boston	74.4%	43.4%	28.0%	19.4%
Brockton	72.8%	32.9%	19.3%	13.5%
Fall River	76.6%	23.8%	5.4%	20.0%
Holyoke	82.5%	50.8%	26.0%	26.2%
Lawrence	87.1%	77.3%	23.8%	20.1%
Lowell	72.5%	43.9%	33.1%	15.4%
Lynn	78.6%	52.7%	21.6%	16.1%
New Bedford	71.2%	21.4%	4.1%	19.8%
Springfield	84.2%	24.4%	14.1%	22.8%
Worcester	70.1%	43.2%	31.8%	20.9%

Next, we compare the districts with regard to their dropout and graduation rates as well as their average number of school absences and overall attendance rate. The district with the best statistic in each category  (Worcester) is highlighted in red. Lynn ranked fourth among these districts in the dropout rate category  and third in the graduation rate. Dropout and graduation rates are from 2009-10 while school absence and attendance information is from 2010-11 (the most recent for each).

	Drop out Rate	Graduation Rate	Avg. # Absences	Attendance Rate
Massachusetts	2.9%	82.1%	9.3	94.6%
Boston	6.8%	63.2%	13.5	92%
Brockton	5.5%	66.7%	10.7	93.7%
Fall River	4.9%	66.2%	14.4	91.4%
Holyoke	9.5%	52.5%	15.1	90.5%
Lawrence	9.4%	46.7%	12.1	92.7%
Lowell	4.4%	69.4%	11.1	93.3%
Lynn	5.4%	68.5%	10.8	93.7%
New Bedford	8.1%	53.5%	12.8	92.3%
Springfield	10.5%	53%	15.1	90.8%
Worcester	3.8%	71.4%	9.8	94.2%

Listed next are the percentage of students achieving proficiency in English Language Arts (ELA) and math on the 2011 MCAS exam. Also highlighted in red is the district with the highest percentage in each category (Lynn); Worcester was a close second in each category.

	ELA	Math
Massachusetts	69%	58%
Boston	47%	40%
Brockton	49%	35%
Fall River	49%	37%
Holyoke	34%	27%
Lawrence	41%	28%
Lowell	47%	43%
Lynn	51%	41%
New Bedford	45%	37%
Springfield	41%	28%
Worcester	50%	40%

Finally, what do high school students in these urban districts plan to do after graduation? Listed below are four options though the DESE also tracks data in three other categories ('unknown,' 'other,' 'other post secondary). This data is from 2009-10. In that year, Lynn had the highest percentage of students join the military.

	4yr Public/Private	2yr Public/Private	Military	Work
Massachusetts	60%	22%	2%	7%
Boston	51%	19%	1%	3%
Brockton	43%	43%	2%	5%
Fall River	29%	52%	2%	15%
Holyoke	23%	52%	2%	0%
Lawrence	35%	47%	3%	6%
Lowell	47%	35%	2%	4%
Lynn	30%	50%	5%	8%
New Bedford	44%	41%	4%	7%
Springfield	28%	27%	2%	2%
Worcester	40%	41%	3%	8%

**All Data Taken From: www.doe.mass.edu

DESE Votes to Put Lawrence Public Schools Under State Receivership

On November 29, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) voted 10-1 to designate the Lawrence Public schools a Level 5, or chronically under-performing, district. This vote allows DESE Commissioner Mitchell Chester to appoint a receiver who would have all of the powers of both the superintendent and the school committee and would report directly to the commissioner. The receiver can be either an individual or a non-profit group with a proven record of success in improving the academic achievement of schools or districts deemed to be low-performing and/or in improving educational outcomes for disadvantaged students.The receiver is expected to be named within the next two weeks and will assume authority over the Lawrence Public Schools beginning in January 2012 with a Level 5 Plan to be implemented during the 2012-13 school year.

This decision comes after many years of poor performance in Lawrence, a district with five Level 4 schools, on ed-related indicators like  attendance rates, MCAS exam results and the dropout and graduation rates. In 2009-10, the dropout rate in Lawrence was 9.4% which translated into approximately 311 dropouts that year; the graduation rate for the same school year was 46.7% which is the lowest among any non-charter district in Massachusetts. The graduation rate at some Lawrence high schools is far worse than the average at the district level; the graduation rate for the High School Learning Center is 2009-10 was 2.5%. Below is a table listing the dropout rates for Lawrence from 2004-05 through 2008-09.

04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08	08-09
14.5	10.3	14.8	12.9	10.2

Another contributing factor to the poor academic performance in Lawrence may include attendance. Health and Human Services High School, for instance, has an average daily attendance rate of just 87.9% (compared to 92.8% for the district and 94.6% for the state). Students at the Humanities and Leadership Development High School averaged an astonishing 17.2 school absences in 2009-10 (the average for the state of Massachusetts was 9.3). Performance on standardized tests (MCAS) were also salient in the state's decision to intervene in Lawrence. At Arlington Middle School, for example, only 2% of 8th grade students achieved proficient or higher on the 2011 math MCAS while 68% received a "Warning/Failing" mark.

Below is a table listing the percentage of students achieving proficient or above on the 2011 MCAS results by grade for the Lawrence Public Schools.

	English	Math
3	36	45
4	35	30
5	37	30
6	36	25
7	47	19
8	50	21
10	48	31
All	41	28

Lawrence was voted into receivership not only based on this year's test results, but also based on the school district's test results (among other factors) over time.

Here are the percentage of students achieving proficiency or better on the math portion of the MCAS from 2008-2011.

	2008	2009	2010	2011
3	44	37	49	45
4	33	29	34	30
5	16	25	24	30
6	21	19	29	25
7	13	15	22	19
8	19	14	20	21
10	30	30	36	31

Below are the same results for Reading/English Language Arts portion of the exam.

	2008	2009	2010	2011
3	25	34	40	36
4	24	27	34	35
5	22	32	32	37
6	32	33	42	36
7	38	36	46	47
8	47	49	50	50
10	37	46	48	48

See here for student and teacher reaction to the state takeover of Lawrence schools.


*All Data Taken From: www.doe.mass.edu